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On-again, off-again looks to be best social-distancing option

Chan School coronavirus analysis finds strategy would prevent overwhelming hospitals while building immunity

With global coronavirus cases heading toward half a million, Harvard infectious disease experts said recent modeling shows that - absent the development of a vaccine or other intervention - a staggered pattern of social distancing would save more lives than a one-and-done strategy and avoid overwhelming hospitals while allowing immunity to build in the population.

The work, conducted by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and led by Yonatan Grad, the Melvin J. and Geraldine L. Glimcher Assistant Professor of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, and Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology, also shows that if strict social distancing such as that imposed in China - which cuts transmission by 60 percent - is relaxed, it results in epidemic peaks in the fall and winter similar in size and with similar impacts on the health care system as those in an uncontrolled epidemic.

"We looked at how it would affect the thing that matters most - overwhelming the critical-care unit," Grad said.

The problem, the researchers said, is that while strict social distancing may appear to be the most effective strategy, little population-level immunity is developed to a virus that is very likely to come around again.

Continued here


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